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Water NeosTier 3

at Yeti Gaming Webcam Local 7/11

decks
1 (2.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3 0-2-1
overall winrate
16.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.4% avg ELO -1.2 per match
expected value
41.2% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.1% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1381 · median 1381 · range 1381–1381 (1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1000 Q1 1208 Q3 1396 1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Allies 17.6% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 49.2% -0.7
Wind Shadowstrike 9.8% 0
Water Allies 7.8% 0
Water Ravishing Mill 7.8% 0
Fire Arcane 5.9% 0
Fire Crux Hybrid 5.9% 0
Wind Neos 5.9% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 48.7% -2.1
Fire Aggro 3.9% 0
Fire Crux Mage 3.9% 0
Slimes 3.9% 0
Wind Diana 3.9% 0
Dawn of Ashes 2.0% 0
Fire Astra Cleric 2.0% 0
Fire Crux Merlin 2.0% 0
Fire Slimes 2.0% 0
Water Beast 2.0% 0
Water Crux Lorraine 2.0% 0
Water Diana 2.0% 0
Water Neos Tonoris 2.0% 0
Water Tera Silvie 2.0% 0
Wind Crux Lorraine 2.0% 0
Wind Slice & Dice 2.0% 0
Decklists · 1 from this event

The 1 public Water Neos decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

JSON: /api/events/7521/archetypes/Water Neos