EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at grand archive store champ.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 33.3% | 6 | 66.7% | 57.8% | 55.7% | 54.3% | 1456 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Allies | 1 | 16.7% | 4 | 62.5% | 57.7% | 52.7% | 53.2% | 1518 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Allies | 1 | 16.7% | 2 | 25.0% | 39.9% | 46.7% | 45.7% | 1410 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Slimes | 2 | 33.3% | 4 | 25.0% | 40.1% | 41.9% | 43.8% | 1195 | ↓ low |