← Mercurial Heart Store Championship
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at Mercurial Heart Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 36.4% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.4% | +4.2 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Wind Allies | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Wind Zander | 9.1% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 31.0% | -14.2 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 35 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 35 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpen Blade | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Swift Recruit | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Reclaim | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sable Remnant | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Slice and Dice | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Shadowstrike | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arrow Trap | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sharpening Stone | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Imperial Spy | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shadow Resonance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |