EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Canyon Store Champ.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Crux Hybrid | 1 | 8.3% | 5 | 90.0% | 62.5% | 59.8% | 56.3% | 1574 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Crux Merlin | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 62.5% | 60.1% | 56.3% | 56.5% | 1507 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 16.7% | 6 | 66.7% | 54.4% | 52.9% | 50.5% | 1415 | — |
| 4 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 8.3% | 3 | 33.3% | 46.6% | 50.0% | 50.6% | 1390 | — |
| 5 | Slimes | 3 | 25.0% | 10 | 50.0% | 49.9% | 49.8% | 50.2% | 1268 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Wind Diana | 1 | 8.3% | 3 | 33.3% | 43.4% | 46.7% | 47.2% | 1124 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 1 | 8.3% | 3 | 33.3% | 41.1% | 44.0% | 44.3% | 1340 | — |
| 8 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 8.3% | 3 | 16.7% | 41.3% | 41.7% | 44.4% | 1338 | — |
| 9 | Water Neos | 1 | 8.3% | 3 | 16.7% | 43.7% | 41.2% | 46.7% | 1499 | ↑ top |