← Store Championship - Mercurial Heart
Fire SlimesTier 2
at Store Championship - Mercurial Heart
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Astra Cleric | 16.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.4 |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 16.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
| Wind Allies | 16.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 16.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 20 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key Slime Pudding | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Paws | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blissful Calling | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Forest Cake | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slime Totem | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hymn of Gaia's Grace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gaia's Songbird | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stonescale Band | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Verdant Scepter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gaia's Blessing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Ears | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |