← Store Championship - Mercurial Heart
Water Umbra TristanTier 1
at Store Championship - Mercurial Heart
decks
1
(16.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
3-0-0
overall winrate
100.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
73.5%
avg ELO +17.6 per match
expected value
60.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
60.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1569
· median 1569
· range 1569–1569
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1101
Q1 1257
Q3 1441
1569
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Slimes | 33.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 16.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 16.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +20.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 16.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.2% | +21.0 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Tristan decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
