← Manta Mercurial Heart Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Manta Mercurial Heart Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Crux Lorraine | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 87.5% | 70.1% | 62.0% | 62.1% | 1333 | — |
| 2 | Water Allies | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 75.0% | 62.4% | 56.7% | 57.1% | 1162 | ↓ low |
| 3 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 62.5% | 49.3% | 55.0% | 51.6% | 1436 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Slimes | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 37.5% | 49.9% | 48.3% | 51.2% | 1207 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 30.0% | 7 | 35.7% | 40.4% | 47.2% | 47.0% | 1289 | — |
| 6 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 10.0% | 3 | 33.3% | 44.9% | 44.0% | 45.8% | 1301 | — |
| 7 | Wind Allies | 1 | 10.0% | 3 | 33.3% | 42.6% | 44.0% | 43.5% | 1132 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 10.0% | 1 | 0.0% | 38.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | 1356 | ↑ top |