← Grand Archive Store Championship
Water Crux MerlinTier 2
at Grand Archive Store Championship
decks
1
(7.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
1-2-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.5%
avg ELO -7.1 per match
expected value
46.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1180
· median 1180
· range 1180–1180
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1085
Q1 1123
Q3 1225
1373
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 23.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 15.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Merlin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
