← Grand Archive Store Championship
Water NeosTier 2
at Grand Archive Store Championship
decks
1
(7.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-2-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.4%
avg ELO +0.9 per match
expected value
46.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1085
· median 1085
· range 1085–1085
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1085
Q1 1123
Q3 1225
1373
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 23.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 15.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Neos decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
