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Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Yeti Gaming Webcam Locals 8/22
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 19.6% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 51.9% | +1.4 |
| Wind Allies | 17.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.3% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.4 |
| Water Neos | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.5% | +0.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 35 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 35 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Purge in Flames | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tether in Flames | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spontaneous Combustion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Repelling Palmblast | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Retold Fortune | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Serum of Wisdom | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Geldus, Terror of Dorumegia | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Potion Infusion: Seal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |