EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at JWW Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 14.3% | 10 | 80.0% | 71.1% | 59.2% | 58.7% | 1426 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 70.0% | 57.6% | 55.9% | 54.6% | 1689 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Erupting | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 70.0% | 57.6% | 55.9% | 54.6% | 1689 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Allies | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 54.9% | 53.3% | 55.3% | 1120 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Wind Crux Hybrid | 1 | 7.1% | 3 | 66.7% | 56.3% | 52.5% | 52.2% | 1273 | — |
| 6 | Fire Vanitas | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 50.5% | 51.4% | 51.7% | 1201 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 2 | 14.3% | 6 | 41.7% | 41.7% | 48.9% | 47.0% | 1296 | — |
| 8 | Fire Aggro | 3 | 21.4% | 11 | 31.8% | 39.8% | 46.1% | 47.3% | 1190 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Water Allies | 3 | 21.4% | 10 | 30.0% | 36.8% | 45.2% | 45.6% | 1226 | — |
| 10 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 7.1% | 2 | 0.0% | 33.4% | 40.0% | 40.1% | 1080 | ↓ low |