← 11/17 AMB Store Championship TGCShuffle
Fire ExiaTier 2
at 11/17 AMB Store Championship TGCShuffle
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 18.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.7% | -12.8 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 18.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tonoris | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 30 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exia Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Lunge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Savage Swing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seize Fate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wandering Glaivier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Prescience | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bloodbond Bladesworn | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire, Black Market | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Relentless Outburst | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Insight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Potion of Healing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mend Flesh | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |