EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Luxera's Map Invitational.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 6.2% | 7 | 85.7% | 51.2% | 60.0% | 50.7% | 1352 | ↓ low |
| 2 | Wind Crux Mage | 2 | 12.5% | 12 | 62.5% | 49.6% | 57.0% | 49.9% | 1553 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 6.2% | 5 | 60.0% | 51.5% | 55.0% | 50.7% | 1427 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Wind Allies | 1 | 6.2% | 6 | 58.3% | 49.8% | 54.2% | 49.9% | 1582 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Cats | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 50.0% | 49.9% | 51.4% | 50.1% | 1413 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 6.2% | 5 | 70.0% | 50.4% | 51.2% | 49.9% | 1518 | — |
| 7 | Fire Crux Mage | 3 | 18.8% | 14 | 39.3% | 50.4% | 48.1% | 50.3% | 1445 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Exia | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 37.5% | 49.6% | 47.1% | 49.6% | 1426 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 50.0% | 50.2% | 45.7% | 49.9% | 1652 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 25.0% | 48.7% | 44.0% | 49.3% | 1540 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Water Allies | 2 | 12.5% | 7 | 35.7% | 50.0% | 43.3% | 49.6% | 1413 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Water Arcane | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 0.0% | 47.9% | 40.0% | 49.2% | 1632 | ↑ top |