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Fire Crux MageTier 2
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 52.8% | +1.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 9.4% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.0% | -3.5 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 9.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.1% | -10.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 9.4% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.5% | -5.6 |
| Slimes | 6.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 27.8% | -21.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +0.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -17.0 |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.6 |
| Wind Allies | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.3% | -5.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
The 6 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Resolute Stand. Losers more often ran: Library Witch.
Show all 48 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 46 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under Fire | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Kongming, Wayward Maven | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shard of Empowerment | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Heighten Spellcraft | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Thunderclap | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Harmonious Mantra | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Indolent Leisure | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Set Ablaze | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Purge in Flames | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Retold Fortune | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |