← Regionals - Mortal Ambition - Wilczek
Wind RazorgaleTier 2
at Regionals - Mortal Ambition - Wilczek
decks
2
(6.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
2-6-2
overall winrate
30.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
35.9%
avg ELO -6.3 per match
expected value
47.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1088
· median 1088
· range 983–1193
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
983
Q1 1182
Q3 1354
1535
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 20.7% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 55.8% | +3.7 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 10.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.6% | -18.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Fire Exia | 6.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Water Allies | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
