Regionals - Mortal Ambition - Wilczek

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Slimes	Tier 2	6	20.7%	7-12-2	38.1%	44.9%	43.0%	45.7%	1191	↓ low
2		Water Penguin Mill	Tier 1	3	10.3%	9-7-0	56.2%	60.7%	51.2%	53.2%	1288	—
3		Water Ravishing Mill	Tier 1	3	10.3%	12-5-2	68.4%	55.5%	59.5%	54.3%	1394	↑ top
4		Fire Crux Mage	Tier 1	2	6.9%	6-3-0	66.7%	69.3%	54.0%	57.1%	1202	↓ low
5		Fire Exia	Tier 2	2	6.9%	3-5-2	40.0%	45.1%	48.3%	49.1%	1154	↓ low
6		Water Allies	Tier 1	2	6.9%	11-3-1	76.7%	61.6%	59.5%	54.8%	1444	↑ top
7		Wind Razorgale	Tier 2	2	6.9%	2-6-2	30.0%	35.9%	47.3%	47.1%	1088	↓ low
8		Wind Shadowstrike	Tier 2	2	6.9%	3-5-1	38.9%	41.4%	50.0%	48.6%	1346	↑ top
9		Fire Aggro	Tier 2	1	3.4%	0-2-0	0.0%	33.8%	40.0%	40.3%	1197	↓ low
10		Fire Arcane	Tier 2	1	3.4%	2-3-0	40.0%	46.4%	47.1%	47.7%	1364	↑ top
11		Fire Slimes	Tier 2	1	3.4%	2-2-1	50.0%	41.0%	47.9%	43.5%	1468	↑ top
12		Water Umbra Diana	Tier 2	1	3.4%	4-2-0	66.7%	61.2%	50.9%	51.9%	1332	↑ top
13		Wind Allies	Tier 2	1	3.4%	1-4-0	20.0%	43.0%	40.0%	43.6%	1045	↓ low
14		Wind Astra Cleric	Tier 2	1	3.4%	2-2-1	50.0%	48.4%	50.0%	48.6%	1402	↑ top
15		Wind Tera Silvie	Tier 2	1	3.4%	1-4-0	20.0%	35.5%	42.0%	42.8%	1200	↓ low

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Slimes 6 decks · 20.7%
• Water Penguin Mill 3 decks · 10.3%
• Water Ravishing Mill 3 decks · 10.3%
• Fire Crux Mage 2 decks · 6.9%
• Fire Exia 2 decks · 6.9%
• Water Allies 2 decks · 6.9%
• Wind Razorgale 2 decks · 6.9%
• Wind Shadowstrike 2 decks · 6.9%
• Fire Aggro 1 deck · 3.4%
• Fire Arcane 1 deck · 3.4%
• Fire Slimes 1 deck · 3.4%
• Water Umbra Diana 1 deck · 3.4%
• Wind Allies 1 deck · 3.4%
• Wind Astra Cleric 1 deck · 3.4%
• Wind Tera Silvie 1 deck · 3.4%