Water AlliesTier 2
at GA Regionals November 30th
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 19.0% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 28.2% | -14.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.5% | -6.3 |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.3 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 4.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -3.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.7% | -21.2 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 53 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 53 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shieldbearer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sharpen Blade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drifting Rogue | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Rain | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shroud in Mist | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Hired Blade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hydroguard Retainer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intrepid Highwayman | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hailstorm Guard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowdancer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shadow Resonance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Awakened Frostguard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shield | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Icebound Slam | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Halocline Scout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shadow's Claw | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Tirade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jueying, Shadowmare | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |