← GA Regionals November 30th

Wind AlliesTier 1

at GA Regionals November 30th

decks
4 (19.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13 11-2-0
overall winrate
84.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
67.2% avg ELO +7.2 per match
expected value
62.2% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
58.7% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1312 · median 1241 · range 1186–1582 (4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1039 Q1 1186 Q3 1268 1582
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 25% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Allies 14.3% 4 4-0-0 100.0% 75.0% 71.8% +14.0
Fire Crux Mage 4.8% 0
Fire Luxem Assassin 4.8% 0
Fire Slimes 4.8% 0
Fire Umbra Diana 4.8% 0
Fire Umbra Ranger 4.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.9% +9.5
Slimes 4.8% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 61.4% +10.9
Water Astra Cleric 4.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.7% +9.1
Water Crux Mage 4.8% 0
Water Penguin Mill 4.8% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 47.8% -2.1
Wind Arcane 4.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.4% +13.5
Wind Astra Cleric 4.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.3% -15.5
Wind Cats 4.8% 0
Wind Shadowstrike 4.8% 0
Wind Silvie 4.8% 0
Wind Wakeup Combo 4.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 52.2% +3.5
Decklists · 4 from this event

The 4 public Wind Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 3 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Heavy Swing, Staggering Strike, Cry for Help. Losers more often ran: Fire Resonance Bauble, Tempest Downfall, Mortal Ambition.

Played more by winners
Heavy Swing
Winning decks ran 3.0 copies on average, losing decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Staggering Strike
Winning decks ran 3.0 copies on average, losing decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Cry for Help
Winning decks ran 3.0 copies on average, losing decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Mandate of Honor
Winning decks ran 1.0 copy on average, losing decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Bulwark Sword
Winning decks ran 1.0 copy on average, losing decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Dream Fairy
Winning decks ran 4.0 copies on average, losing decks 2.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Played more by losers
Fire Resonance Bauble
Losing decks ran 1.0 copy on average, winning decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Tempest Downfall
Losing decks ran 2.7 copies on average, winning decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Mortal Ambition
Losing decks ran 2.3 copies on average, winning decks 2.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Show all 58 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 47 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Heavy Swing +1.00 3 0 0
Fire Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 3 0
Staggering Strike +1.00 3 0 0
Tempest Downfall -1.00 0 3 0
Cry for Help +1.00 3 0 0
Mandate of Honor +1.00 3 0 0
Bulwark Sword +1.00 3 0 0
Dream Fairy +1.00 3 0 0
Innervate Agility +1.00 3 0 0
Water Resonance Bauble -0.67 0 2 0
Bertha, Spry Howitzer +0.67 2 0 1
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +0.67 2 0 1
Tonoris, Lone Mercenary +0.67 2 0 1
Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar -0.67 0 2 1
Windmill Engineer +0.67 2 0 1
Nullifying Lantern +0.67 2 0 1
Zephyr -0.67 0 2 1
Rose, Eternal Paragon -0.67 0 2 0
Ornamental Greatsword -0.67 0 2 0
Verdigris Decree -0.67 0 2 0
Lorraine, Wandering Warrior -0.67 0 2 0
Dilu, Auspicious Charger +0.33 1 0 2
Reclaim +0.33 1 0 2
Perse, Relentless Raptor +0.33 1 0 2
Evasive Maneuvers -0.33 0 1 0
Viridian Protective Trinket +0.33 1 0 2
Liu Bei, Oathkeeper +0.33 1 0 2
Stifling Trap +0.33 1 0 2
Tristan, Underhanded -0.33 0 1 0
Lena, Dorumegia's Herald +0.33 2 1 0
Mortal Ambition -0.33 1 2 0
Backstep +0.33 1 0 2
Marksman Captain -0.33 0 1 0
Incapacitate -0.33 0 1 0
Gawain, Chivalrous Thief -0.33 0 1 0
Oath of the Sakura +0.33 1 0 2
Nullifying Mirror +0.33 1 0 2
Winbless Rangefinder -0.33 0 1 0
Skirting Step +0.33 1 0 2
Cleansing Reunion -0.33 0 1 0
Shimmercloak Assassin -0.33 0 1 0
Diablerie -0.33 0 1 0
Lurking Assailant -0.33 0 1 0
Charged Mannequin -0.33 0 1 0
Eye of Argus -0.33 0 1 0
Sword of Seeking -0.33 0 1 0
Rallied Advance -0.33 0 1 0
Manufacture Cell -0.33 0 1 0
Andronika, Eternal Herald -0.33 0 1 0
Second Wind -0.33 0 1 0
Eternal Magistrate -0.33 0 1 0
Favorable Winds -0.33 0 1 0
Poisoned Coating Oil -0.33 0 1 0
Invective Instruction -0.33 0 1 0
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa -0.33 0 1 0
Veiling Breeze -0.33 0 1 0
Zhang Fei, Spirited Steel -0.33 0 1 0
Parcenet, Royal Maid +0.00 1 1 1

JSON: /api/events/14997/archetypes/Wind Allies