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Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Tabletop Village Store Championship
decks
2
(10.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
3-5-0
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.5%
avg ELO -2.2 per match
expected value
45.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1254
· median 1254
· range 1140–1368
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1100
Q1 1308
Q3 1368
1548
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.8% | -13.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 10.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.7 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.9 |
| Water Tera Mage | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Wind Allies | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
