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Water AlliesTier 1
at Tabletop Village Store Championship
decks
1
(5.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-0-3
overall winrate
70.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.2%
avg ELO -1.6 per match
expected value
52.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1548
· median 1548
· range 1548–1548
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1100
Q1 1308
Q3 1368
1548
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 10.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | -4.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
| Slimes | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
