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Water ArisannaTier 2
at Tabletop Village Store Championship
decks
1
(5.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-3-0
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.6%
avg ELO -2.0 per match
expected value
45.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1357
· median 1357
· range 1357–1357
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1100
Q1 1308
Q3 1368
1548
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 10.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.0% | -12.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +11.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Arisanna decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
