Fire ExiaTier 2
at AMB Regionals
decks
1
(3.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
0-3-1
overall winrate
12.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
34.5%
avg ELO -9.9 per match
expected value
40.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1137
· median 1137
· range 1137–1137
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1146
Q3 1391
1599
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 22.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 14.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.4% | -9.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -1.9 |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.3 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Exia decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
