Water Penguin MillTier 2
at AMB Regionals
decks
1
(3.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-0-2
overall winrate
80.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.5%
avg ELO +4.3 per match
expected value
55.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1458
· median 1458
· range 1458–1458
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1146
Q3 1391
1599
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 22.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 14.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -2.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Penguin Mill decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
