Fire AggroTier 1
at NPL Store Champs
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 25.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 59.3% | +5.9 |
| Wind Allies | 16.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 8.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.9% | -4.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 14 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 14 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flashfire Horse | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Surging Bolt | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire, Black Market | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |