Fire Crux MageTier 2
at NPL Store Champs
decks
1
(8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-3-0
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.6%
avg ELO -2.0 per match
expected value
48.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1162
· median 1162
· range 1162–1162
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1038
Q1 1260
Q3 1403
1509
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 25.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +20.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 16.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Wind Allies | 16.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.4% | -15.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.3 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
