Water AlliesTier 1
at Mox Valley ALC Regional
decks
4
(13.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
24
12-10-2
overall winrate
54.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.5%
avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
55.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1294
· median 1288
· range 1165–1436
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1051
Q1 1183
Q3 1313
1440
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 16.7% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 67.4% | +13.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 10.0% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 43.7% | -3.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -4.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 6.7% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 60.0% | +6.4 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -1.4 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -18.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.4% | +12.8 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.3 |
| Fire Erupting | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.3% | -5.7 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Wind Beast | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
| Wind Lorraine | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
