Wind Crux LorraineTier 1
at Mox Valley ALC Regional
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 16.7% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +0.8 |
| Water Allies | 13.3% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 56.3% | +3.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.1% | +15.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.4% | +8.0 |
| Fire Erupting | 3.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.6% | +7.3 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.0 |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Wind Beast | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 15 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 15 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reclaim | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Windrider Vanguard | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tactful Sergeant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rally the Peasants | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |