Mox Valley ALC Regional

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Fire Crux Mage	Tier 1	5	16.7%	10-9-4	52.2%	50.0%	48.7%	48.5%	1262	—
2		Water Allies	Tier 1	4	13.3%	12-10-2	54.2%	50.5%	55.0%	53.4%	1294	↑ top
3		Fire Aggro	Tier 2	3	10.0%	5-6-0	45.5%	50.4%	46.8%	47.9%	1230	—
4		Wind Crux Lorraine	Tier 1	3	10.0%	13-3-3	76.3%	70.0%	57.1%	56.7%	1294	↑ top
5		Fire Luxem Assassin	Tier 2	2	6.7%	3-5-2	40.0%	42.6%	46.6%	46.8%	1325	↑ top
6		Fire Umbra Ranger	Tier 2	2	6.7%	4-7-0	36.4%	43.1%	45.3%	46.9%	1278	—
7		Wind Allies	Tier 2	2	6.7%	1-4-1	25.0%	37.3%	43.8%	44.9%	1150	↓ low
8		Dawn of Ashes	Tier 2	1	3.3%	2-3-0	40.0%	49.8%	50.9%	52.7%	1051	↓ low
9		Fire Arcane	Tier 2	1	3.3%	2-3-0	40.0%	44.7%	46.9%	47.1%	1318	↑ top
10		Fire Crux Merlin	Tier 2	1	3.3%	5-1-1	78.6%	65.0%	55.2%	53.8%	1327	↑ top
11		Fire Erupting	Tier 2	1	3.3%	1-3-1	30.0%	39.3%	42.3%	42.6%	1368	↑ top
12		Water Astra Cleric	Tier 2	1	3.3%	0-3-1	12.5%	33.4%	41.0%	42.0%	1241	—
13		Water Crux Lorraine	Tier 2	1	3.3%	2-3-0	40.0%	45.3%	51.7%	51.7%	1308	↑ top
14		Water Crux Mage	Tier 2	1	3.3%	4-3-0	57.1%	54.7%	54.6%	54.8%	1212	↓ low
15		Water Luxem Assassin	Tier 2	1	3.3%	4-2-1	64.3%	57.3%	53.2%	52.8%	1314	↑ top
16		Wind Beast	Tier 2	1	3.3%	3-2-0	60.0%	58.0%	51.4%	53.5%	1091	↓ low
17		Wind Lorraine	Tier 2	1	3.3%	0-4-0	0.0%	26.0%	40.0%	40.1%	1119	↓ low

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Fire Crux Mage 5 decks · 16.7%
• Water Allies 4 decks · 13.3%
• Fire Aggro 3 decks · 10.0%
• Wind Crux Lorraine 3 decks · 10.0%
• Fire Luxem Assassin 2 decks · 6.7%
• Fire Umbra Ranger 2 decks · 6.7%
• Wind Allies 2 decks · 6.7%
• Dawn of Ashes 1 deck · 3.3%
• Fire Arcane 1 deck · 3.3%
• Fire Crux Merlin 1 deck · 3.3%
• Fire Erupting 1 deck · 3.3%
• Water Astra Cleric 1 deck · 3.3%
• Water Crux Lorraine 1 deck · 3.3%
• Water Crux Mage 1 deck · 3.3%
• Water Luxem Assassin 1 deck · 3.3%
• Wind Beast 1 deck · 3.3%
• Wind Lorraine 1 deck · 3.3%