← Phantom Cards and Collectibles
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Phantom Cards and Collectibles.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 25.0% | 3 | 50.0% | 50.2% | 52.2% | 52.4% | 1569 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Penguin Mill | 2 | 50.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 49.4% | 50.0% | 49.6% | 1463 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 25.0% | 3 | 50.0% | 50.5% | 47.8% | 48.2% | 1335 | — |