EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Yeti Gaming Webcam Weekly 1/9/2025. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Water Penguin Mill

55.1%

8.5% share · 12 matches

1st

Wind Umbra Diana

58.0%

2.1% share · 4 matches

4.3% share · 6 matches

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Wind Umbra Diana	1	2.1%	4	75.0%	51.1%	58.0%	50.8%	1381	↑ top
2	Water Penguin Mill	4	8.5%	12	70.8%	51.6%	55.1%	50.6%	1319	—
3	Wind Allies	2	4.3%	6	66.7%	50.7%	53.4%	50.2%	1294	—
4	Water Allies	5	10.6%	18	61.1%	49.8%	53.2%	49.7%	1482	↑ top
5	Wind Razorgale	3	6.4%	12	54.2%	49.6%	52.3%	50.1%	1422	↑ top
6	Fire Aggro	1	2.1%	4	75.0%	51.5%	52.0%	50.3%	1328	—
7	Water Astra Cleric	2	4.3%	7	57.1%	50.5%	51.8%	50.2%	1267	—
8	Slimes	2	4.3%	8	56.2%	50.5%	50.5%	50.3%	1260	—
9	Fire Exia	4	8.5%	15	53.3%	50.6%	50.5%	50.3%	1263	—
10	Fire Crux Mage	4	8.5%	11	50.0%	50.1%	48.9%	50.0%	1392	↑ top
11	Water Tera Mage	2	4.3%	6	33.3%	49.1%	48.6%	49.9%	1169	↓ low
12	Wind Slimes	1	2.1%	4	50.0%	49.5%	48.3%	49.6%	1638	↑ top
13	Water Crux Merlin	1	2.1%	4	25.0%	49.1%	48.0%	49.9%	1222	↓ low
14	Wind Shadowstrike	4	8.5%	13	42.3%	49.6%	47.9%	50.0%	1244	↓ low
15	Fire Astra Cleric	1	2.1%	4	50.0%	51.0%	46.7%	50.3%	1083	↓ low
16	Water Fractal	1	2.1%	4	37.5%	49.4%	46.2%	49.6%	1244	↓ low
17	Fire Neos Tonoris	1	2.1%	3	33.3%	49.5%	45.7%	49.9%	1000	↓ low
18	Wind Astra Cleric	5	10.6%	12	29.2%	48.7%	44.8%	49.5%	1251	—
19	Water Ravishing Mill	1	2.1%	2	25.0%	49.7%	44.4%	49.7%	1179	↓ low
20	Wind Overlord	2	4.3%	7	14.3%	48.3%	41.6%	49.3%	1190	↓ low