← Yeti Webcam Weekly 1/16/2025
Water Penguin MillTier 2
at Yeti Webcam Weekly 1/16/2025
decks
4
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
8-6-2
overall winrate
56.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.0%
avg ELO -0.0 per match
expected value
49.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1381
· median 1420
· range 1159–1525
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1039
Q1 1199
Q3 1440
1617
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 11.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 49.1% | -0.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 48.8% | -1.1 |
| Fire Exia | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.7% | +1.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.3% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 50.3% | +0.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.7% | -0.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.2% | -1.2 |
| Water Exia | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.7% | +1.1 |
| Wind Overlord | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.2% | +1.9 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.5% | +0.8 |
