← CardArt Mortal Ambitions Store Championship
Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at CardArt Mortal Ambitions Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 12.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.8% | +5.6 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 12.5% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 52.8% | +1.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 12.5% | 4 | 1-1-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.5% | -4.8 |
| Slimes | 8.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.6% | +10.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.8% | +2.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -19.5 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.6% | +13.1 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.1 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.2 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 12 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 12 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Glacial Guidance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |