EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Yeti Gaming Webcam Weekly 2/13/2025. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Fire Aggro

54.6%

4.8% share · 8 matches

1st

Water Ravishing Mill

56.0%

16.7% share · 19 matches

4.8% share · 7 matches

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#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Water Ravishing Mill	7	16.7%	19	63.2%	50.7%	56.0%	50.5%	1375	↑ top
2	Fire Aggro	2	4.8%	8	75.0%	51.5%	54.6%	50.6%	1351	—
3	Water Allies	2	4.8%	7	71.4%	49.4%	52.4%	49.7%	1385	↑ top
4	Wind Razorgale	6	14.3%	19	60.5%	50.2%	50.7%	49.8%	1344	—
5	Wind Shadowstrike	4	9.5%	16	50.0%	50.4%	49.8%	50.1%	1302	—
6	Fire Slimes	2	4.8%	6	58.3%	50.3%	49.5%	49.9%	1394	↑ top
7	Slimes	6	14.3%	17	52.9%	50.3%	47.9%	50.0%	1218	↓ low
8	Fire Crux Lorraine	1	2.4%	3	33.3%	49.5%	45.7%	49.6%	1328	—
9	Water Penguin Mill	1	2.4%	2	25.0%	49.2%	45.4%	49.5%	1362	—
10	Fire Crux Mage	3	7.1%	12	45.8%	50.0%	45.2%	49.7%	1272	—
11	Fire Polkhawk	1	2.4%	3	33.3%	50.2%	44.0%	50.0%	1160	↓ low
12	Fire Luxem Assassin	1	2.4%	2	25.0%	48.9%	43.3%	49.1%	1373	↑ top
13	Water Tera Mage	1	2.4%	4	25.0%	48.9%	41.4%	49.3%	1144	↓ low
14	Fire Exia	1	2.4%	3	16.7%	49.1%	40.8%	49.4%	1164	↓ low
15	Fire Silvie	1	2.4%	2	0.0%	50.0%	40.0%	50.0%	1525	↑ top
16	Water Neos	1	2.4%	1	0.0%	49.4%	40.0%	49.4%	1426	↑ top
17	Wind Crux Mage	1	2.4%	4	0.0%	48.6%	40.0%	49.7%	1222	↓ low
18	Wind Exia	1	2.4%	2	0.0%	48.6%	33.3%	48.6%	1159	↓ low