← Yeti Gaming Webcam Weekly 3/21/2024
Fire ArcaneTier 1
at Yeti Gaming Webcam Weekly 3/21/2024
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 24.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 50.5% | +0.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 8.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 50.5% | +0.5 |
| Fire Erupting | 8.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.4% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 51.3% | +0.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 51.4% | +1.3 |
| Wind Allies | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Tamer | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tonoris | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.7% | -2.0 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 18 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 18 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Increasing Danger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exorcise Curses | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mana Limiter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Serum of Wisdom | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellshield: Arcane | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peer into Mana | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Anger the Skies | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fireball | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Stormcaller | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Power Overwhelming | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |