Water AlliesTier 1

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

The 9 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

• Killydis 80 cards · placed #6
• Pavonee 80 cards · placed #9
• KevinC 80 cards · placed #10
• Penguin 80 cards · placed #16
• KDiPas 80 cards · placed #17
• Lunawave89 80 cards · placed #18
• UnsungCrown 80 cards · placed #23
• Pasta 80 cards · placed #30
• Stoutfish 70 cards · placed #34

In 3 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Seeking Shot, Fracturize. Losers more often ran: Reposition.

↑ Played more by winners

Seeking Shot

Winning decks ran 3.3 copies on average, losing decks 0.7.

Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.

Fracturize

Winning decks ran 3.3 copies on average, losing decks 2.7.

Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.

↓ Played more by losers

Reposition

Losing decks ran 3.3 copies on average, winning decks 0.7.

Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.