← Yeti Revelfest Weekly Event 3/6/2025
Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Yeti Revelfest Weekly Event 3/6/2025
decks
2
(5.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-2-2
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.8%
avg ELO +0.4 per match
expected value
47.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1441
· median 1441
· range 1259–1624
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1047
Q1 1216
Q3 1442
1624
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.2% | -1.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 10.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.2% | +1.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Jin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 50.7% | +0.7 |
| Water Silvie | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
