EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Regionals - Cardpoint.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Genbu | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 90.0% | 61.1% | 56.7% | 52.8% | 1584 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Vanitas | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 54.5% | 53.8% | 1264 | — |
| 3 | Wind Crux Hybrid | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 70.0% | 66.2% | 54.0% | 55.9% | 1262 | — |
| 4 | Water Neos | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 52.2% | 53.3% | 52.1% | 1312 | — |
| 5 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 50.0% | 54.3% | 53.0% | 54.1% | 1266 | — |
| 6 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 4 | 17.4% | 19 | 55.3% | 52.7% | 52.0% | 51.0% | 1248 | — |
| 7 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 50.0% | 48.0% | 50.9% | 50.4% | 1420 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Wind Shadowstrike | 4 | 17.4% | 19 | 55.3% | 54.2% | 50.8% | 51.2% | 1317 | — |
| 9 | Water Fractal | 2 | 8.7% | 10 | 50.0% | 45.8% | 50.7% | 49.7% | 1273 | — |
| 10 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 44.0% | 48.3% | 48.0% | 1188 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Fire Exia | 2 | 8.7% | 10 | 35.0% | 42.3% | 46.5% | 47.5% | 1242 | — |
| 12 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 8.7% | 9 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.1% | 45.7% | 1151 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Wind Allies | 1 | 4.3% | 2 | 0.0% | 38.6% | 40.0% | 43.6% | 1136 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Fire Seiryuu | 1 | 4.3% | 4 | 0.0% | 29.7% | 37.0% | 39.0% | 1153 | ↓ low |