EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Tabletop Village Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Fire Aggro

53.8%

15.8% share · 17 matches

10.5% share · 11 matches

10.5% share · 13 matches

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Wind Astra Cleric	2	10.5%	11	72.7%	63.2%	55.2%	54.2%	1406	↑ top
2	Fire Aggro	3	15.8%	17	58.8%	58.0%	53.8%	53.9%	1350	↑ top
3	Fire Slimes	2	10.5%	13	61.5%	49.1%	52.7%	48.5%	1340	—
4	Wind Allies	1	5.3%	5	70.0%	55.7%	52.0%	50.5%	1357	↑ top
5	Water Crux Mage	1	5.3%	4	37.5%	43.0%	50.6%	49.2%	1440	↑ top
6	Water Fractal	1	5.3%	4	37.5%	43.0%	50.6%	49.2%	1440	↑ top
7	Wind Razorgale	1	5.3%	6	58.3%	54.6%	49.1%	49.0%	1318	—
8	Fire Luxem Assassin	2	10.5%	10	55.0%	49.8%	48.6%	48.2%	1334	—
9	Fire Exia	1	5.3%	5	30.0%	43.3%	48.1%	50.4%	1140	↓ low
10	Fire Firebloom Burn	1	5.3%	5	50.0%	47.8%	47.5%	47.0%	1436	↑ top
11	Wind Shadowstrike	1	5.3%	5	30.0%	40.5%	44.3%	45.0%	1113	↓ low
12	Water Genbu	1	5.3%	5	30.0%	48.8%	43.9%	48.4%	1298	—
13	Wind Lorraine	2	10.5%	9	27.8%	45.1%	41.7%	46.2%	1123	↓ low
14	Fire Tera Cleric	1	5.3%	3	0.0%	36.3%	40.0%	44.0%	1100	↓ low