Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at Storechamp
decks
3
(9.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
17
10-5-2
overall winrate
64.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.1%
avg ELO -1.5 per match
expected value
54.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1527
· median 1518
· range 1516–1546
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1064
Q1 1297
Q3 1398
1730
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 25.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.8 |
| Water Fractal | 18.8% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 35.1% | -9.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.4% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 40.2% | -6.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.3 |
| Fire Byakko | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.7 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Wind Exia | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.1 |
| Wind Kongming | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.0% | +3.2 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
