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Water FractalTier 1
at TripleTactics TCG Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 15.6% | 9 | 6-1-2 | 77.8% | 69.2% | 58.4% | +3.9 |
| Water Genbu | 12.5% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 47.9% | -1.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 3 | 0-1-2 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.0% | -6.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.4 |
| Water Diao Chan | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 38.0% | -8.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.1% | +24.1 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -0.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.1% | +3.9 |
Decklists · 14 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 11 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Jianyu, Fate's Premonition, Tariff Ring, Censer of Restful Peace. Losers more often ran: Extricating Touch, Water Resonance Bauble, Viridian Protective Trinket.
Show all 39 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 19 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +0.36 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| Extricating Touch | -0.36 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.27 | 1 | 4 | 4 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.27 | 1 | 4 | 5 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.27 | 4 | 1 | 4 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.27 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.18 | 4 | 6 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -0.18 | 3 | 5 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.18 | 5 | 3 | 3 | |
| Unstable Fractal | -0.18 | 3 | 5 | 3 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.18 | 2 | 0 | 9 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.18 | 4 | 2 | 5 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.18 | 2 | 4 | 5 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.18 | 3 | 5 | 2 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +0.18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | +0.18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.09 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.09 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | -0.09 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | -0.09 | 3 | 4 | 4 | |
| Fractal of Snow | +0.09 | 1 | 0 | 10 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.09 | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Wand of Frost | +0.09 | 3 | 2 | 6 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.09 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.09 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Awakened Deacon | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | -0.09 | 4 | 5 | 0 | |
| Orb of Regret | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost Wisdom | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Hubris | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Break Apart | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 4 |