EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 90.0% | 65.1% | 60.6% | 57.3% | 1464 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Slice & Dice | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 90.0% | 71.1% | 58.8% | 58.0% | 1237 | — |
| 3 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 60.0% | 52.5% | 54.3% | 53.0% | 1451 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Fractal | 2 | 9.5% | 9 | 55.6% | 55.2% | 53.3% | 53.8% | 1394 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 70.0% | 50.4% | 52.5% | 48.8% | 1388 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Wind Diana | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 60.0% | 52.7% | 51.4% | 50.5% | 1321 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Suzaku | 2 | 9.5% | 9 | 55.6% | 51.2% | 51.0% | 49.5% | 1224 | — |
| 8 | Water Genbu | 2 | 9.5% | 9 | 44.4% | 47.8% | 50.0% | 50.4% | 1255 | — |
| 9 | Fire Exia | 2 | 9.5% | 8 | 56.2% | 53.1% | 49.1% | 49.2% | 1219 | — |
| 10 | Wind Allies | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 40.0% | 53.0% | 47.5% | 50.3% | 1241 | — |
| 11 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 9.5% | 8 | 37.5% | 42.3% | 47.0% | 47.4% | 1221 | — |
| 12 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 4.8% | 4 | 25.0% | 40.9% | 45.7% | 46.8% | 1006 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Wind Byakko | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 40.0% | 43.5% | 45.7% | 46.0% | 1161 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Fire Umbra Diana | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 20.0% | 44.0% | 42.9% | 47.2% | 1009 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 4.8% | 2 | 0.0% | 28.3% | 40.0% | 37.4% | 1231 | — |
| 16 | Water Zander | 1 | 4.8% | 3 | 0.0% | 37.3% | 40.0% | 44.4% | 1105 | ↓ low |