EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 淡水 貓腳印 HVN 店家冠軍賽.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Allies | 6 | 26.1% | 18 | 61.1% | 56.6% | 56.7% | 55.3% | 1343 | — |
| 2 | Fire Rai | 1 | 4.3% | 6 | 66.7% | 58.6% | 56.4% | 55.1% | 1418 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Allies | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 70.0% | 50.7% | 53.6% | 49.7% | 1441 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Crux Lorraine | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 70.0% | 50.7% | 53.6% | 49.7% | 1441 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 13.0% | 14 | 64.3% | 58.8% | 52.6% | 51.3% | 1357 | — |
| 6 | Fire Aggro | 3 | 13.0% | 13 | 50.0% | 46.3% | 50.5% | 48.6% | 1358 | — |
| 7 | Water Genbu | 2 | 8.7% | 10 | 50.0% | 48.7% | 50.3% | 50.2% | 1432 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Water Fractal | 1 | 4.3% | 6 | 33.3% | 44.4% | 47.7% | 48.3% | 1328 | — |
| 9 | Wind Razorgale | 3 | 13.0% | 12 | 29.2% | 44.6% | 45.1% | 47.7% | 1310 | — |
| 10 | Fire Suzaku | 3 | 13.0% | 13 | 23.1% | 39.5% | 37.9% | 42.8% | 1235 | ↓ low |