Fire ArcaneTier 2
at Whimsy Store Championship
decks
1
(3.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
0-3-1
overall winrate
12.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
34.1%
avg ELO -10.2 per match
expected value
43.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1234
· median 1234
· range 1234–1234
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1062
Q1 1290
Q3 1470
1642
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 17.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -2.2 |
| Water Overlord | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.1 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Polkhawk | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Arcane decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
