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Fire Luxem AssassinTier 2

at Whimsy Store Championship

decks
3 (10.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13 5-7-1
overall winrate
42.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.3% avg ELO -2.4 per match
expected value
45.1% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.6% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1380 · median 1348 · range 1341–1449 (3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1062 Q1 1290 Q3 1470 1642
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Fractal 17.9% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 37.5% -12.0
Wind Shadowstrike 10.7% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 39.6% -10.0
Water Overlord 7.1% 0
Wind Exia 7.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.6% +10.6
Wind Seiryuu 7.1% 0
Fire Aggro 3.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 44.0% -9.5
Fire Arcane 3.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.1% +13.0
Fire Crux Lorraine 3.6% 0
Fire Suzaku 3.6% 0
Fire Tera Mage 3.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.6% +9.0
Water Allies 3.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.5% -15.2
Water Dawn of Ashes 3.6% 0
Water Genbu 3.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.4% -12.2
Wind Allies 3.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 61.2% +17.9
Wind Crux Lorraine 3.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 45.3% -7.6
Wind Neos 3.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.4% +7.0
Wind Polkhawk 3.6% 0
Decklists · 3 from this event

The 3 public Fire Luxem Assassin decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 10 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 10 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Planted Explosive +1.00 1 0 0
Orb of Hubris +1.00 1 0 0
Coronation Ceremony +1.00 1 0 0
Uther, Illustrious King +1.00 1 0 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint -1.00 0 1 0
Nullifying Lantern -1.00 0 1 0
Scry the Skies -1.00 0 1 0
Crystallized Destiny -1.00 0 1 0
Tariff Ring -1.00 0 1 0
Art of War +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/22272/archetypes/Fire Luxem Assassin