Wind ExiaTier 2
at Whimsy Store Championship
decks
2
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
4-4-2
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.6%
avg ELO -1.1 per match
expected value
48.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1312
· median 1312
· range 1157–1467
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1062
Q1 1290
Q3 1470
1642
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 17.9% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +1.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.5% | -7.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 3.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -2.1 |
| Water Allies | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Polkhawk | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
