Water FractalTier 2
at 松江貓 HVN店冠賽
decks
3
(9.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
5-5-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.3%
avg ELO +3.2 per match
expected value
46.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1266
· median 1303
· range 1134–1361
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
974
Q1 1197
Q3 1441
1736
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 15.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.0% | -6.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.2% | +17.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.1 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.0 |
| Water Allies | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.7% | +21.9 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.9% | +23.8 |
| Water Genbu | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
