Water FractalTier 1
at Abyssal Heaven UK Regional!
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 11.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.0% | -3.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 11.1% | 6 | 1-3-2 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 49.1% | -0.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Fire Exia | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
| Fire Kongming | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.3 |
| Slimes | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 5.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.9% | +8.5 |
| Wind Diao Chan | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Fire Resonance Bauble, Staggering Strike, Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa. Losers more often ran: Extricating Touch, Jianyu, Fate's Premonition, Unstable Fractal.
Banned
Show all 20 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 8 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.80 | 4 | 0 | 1 | |
| Extricating Touch | -0.80 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 2 | |
| Unstable Fractal | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 2 | |
| Lost in Thought | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 2 | |
| Disenchant | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Art of War | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Captivating Opulence | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 |