EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 87.5% | 66.1% | 58.0% | 57.0% | 1562 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Allies | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 75.0% | 59.8% | 57.1% | 56.2% | 1597 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 14.3% | 8 | 75.0% | 54.5% | 56.8% | 51.2% | 1425 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Genbu | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 62.5% | 50.6% | 53.3% | 50.2% | 1550 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Fractal | 3 | 21.4% | 8 | 50.0% | 53.8% | 50.8% | 52.6% | 1373 | — |
| 6 | Water Allies | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 43.1% | 48.0% | 45.9% | 1359 | — |
| 7 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 37.5% | 48.5% | 46.7% | 48.7% | 1250 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Exia | 2 | 14.3% | 8 | 37.5% | 45.4% | 44.7% | 46.7% | 1243 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 12.5% | 43.7% | 42.5% | 47.3% | 1060 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 0.0% | 32.5% | 36.7% | 40.4% | 1108 | ↓ low |