← Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Astra Cleric 1 7.1% 4 87.5% 66.1% 58.0% 57.0% 1562 ↑ top
2 Wind Allies 1 7.1% 4 75.0% 59.8% 57.1% 56.2% 1597 ↑ top
3 Wind Shadowstrike 2 14.3% 8 75.0% 54.5% 56.8% 51.2% 1425 ↑ top
4 Water Genbu 1 7.1% 4 62.5% 50.6% 53.3% 50.2% 1550 ↑ top
5 Water Fractal 3 21.4% 8 50.0% 53.8% 50.8% 52.6% 1373
6 Water Allies 1 7.1% 4 50.0% 43.1% 48.0% 45.9% 1359
7 Fire Crux Lorraine 1 7.1% 4 37.5% 48.5% 46.7% 48.7% 1250 ↓ low
8 Fire Exia 2 14.3% 8 37.5% 45.4% 44.7% 46.7% 1243 ↓ low
9 Wind Seiryuu 1 7.1% 4 12.5% 43.7% 42.5% 47.3% 1060 ↓ low
10 Fire Luxem Assassin 1 7.1% 4 0.0% 32.5% 36.7% 40.4% 1108 ↓ low