EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at The Light HVN Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Wind Luxem Zander

55.0%

37.5% share · 3 matches

12.5% share · 1 matches

25.0% share · 4 matches

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#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Wind Astra Cleric	1	12.5%	1	100.0%	54.3%	60.0%	54.3%	1736	↑ top
2	Wind Luxem Zander	3	37.5%	3	66.7%	54.7%	55.0%	53.6%	1450	↑ top
3	Water Fractal	2	25.0%	4	50.0%	54.3%	51.7%	53.4%	1461	↑ top
4	Fire Aggro	2	25.0%	2	0.0%	35.2%	40.0%	40.8%	1379	—