Beginner's Luck HVN Season Store Championship

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Water Fractal	Tier 2	8	28.6%	6-8-4	44.4%	44.2%	44.7%	45.0%	1368	—
2		Wind Astra Cleric	Tier 1	6	21.4%	10-4-4	66.7%	51.8%	58.3%	52.9%	1443	↑ top
3		Fire Aggro	Tier 1	2	7.1%	6-2-2	70.0%	70.0%	57.2%	59.1%	1243	↓ low
4		Fire Luxem Assassin	Tier 1	2	7.1%	3-2-3	56.2%	53.6%	50.2%	51.3%	1357	—
5		Fire Suzaku	Tier 2	2	7.1%	0-6-0	0.0%	28.9%	33.0%	39.3%	1213	↓ low
6		Water Genbu	Tier 1	2	7.1%	3-3-1	50.0%	53.4%	51.3%	52.0%	1352	—
7		Wind Seiryuu	Tier 1	2	7.1%	4-3-0	57.1%	57.8%	55.7%	57.4%	1327	—
8		Wind Shadowstrike	Tier 1	2	7.1%	4-4-0	50.0%	57.8%	51.3%	55.2%	1290	↓ low
9		Wind Allies	Tier 2	1	3.6%	1-4-0	20.0%	37.9%	36.8%	39.9%	1320	—
10		Wind Luxem Zander	Tier 2	1	3.6%	2-3-0	40.0%	35.2%	53.3%	49.1%	1519	↑ top

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Water Fractal 8 decks · 28.6%
• Wind Astra Cleric 6 decks · 21.4%
• Fire Aggro 2 decks · 7.1%
• Fire Luxem Assassin 2 decks · 7.1%
• Fire Suzaku 2 decks · 7.1%
• Water Genbu 2 decks · 7.1%
• Wind Seiryuu 2 decks · 7.1%
• Wind Shadowstrike 2 decks · 7.1%
• Wind Allies 1 deck · 3.6%
• Wind Luxem Zander 1 deck · 3.6%